{"id":6112,"date":"2024-08-26T17:10:12","date_gmt":"2024-08-26T15:10:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/solute.es\/?p=6112"},"modified":"2024-08-28T15:57:17","modified_gmt":"2024-08-28T13:57:17","slug":"conventional-nwp-limitations-for-wind-farms-weather-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/solute.es\/es\/conventional-nwp-limitations-for-wind-farms-weather-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"Limitaciones de los NWP para predicci\u00f3n meteorol\u00f3gica en PEs"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Los modelos globales son insuficientes para predicciones de parques e\u00f3licos. Se requieren modelos de alta resoluci\u00f3n para una mayor precisi\u00f3n.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Durante mucho tiempo, se ha confiado en los modelos meteorol\u00f3gicos globales (GFS, ECMWF, JMA, GDPS etc.) para todo lo que tuviera que ver con la predicci\u00f3n del tiempo atmosf\u00e9rico aplicada al sector industrial. Sin embargo, cuando se trata de predecir eventos o patrones atmosf\u00e9ricos que puedan afectar al rendimiento de parques e\u00f3licos y plantas fotovoltaicas, estos modelos presentan varias limitaciones.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t

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Representaci\u00f3n de las condiciones de contorno<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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La topograf\u00eda, el uso del suelo, los flujos de calor e incluso la l\u00ednea de costa, suelen estar inadecuadamente represententados dentro de los modelos globales. Al contar con un \u00fanico valor de estos par\u00e1metros dentro de cada celda del modelo, puntos geogr\u00e1ficos distantes (incluso a m\u00e1s de 10 km de distancia), no presentan variaci\u00f3n alguna en todo lo referente a estas caracter\u00edsticas, lo que afecta cuantitativa y cualitativamente a la soluci\u00f3n de la soluci\u00f3n final.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Nieblas de radiaci\u00f3n, canalizaciones de viento, etc. dif\u00edcilmente podr\u00e1n ser pronosticadas si las mallas topogr\u00e1ficas no recogen los detalles m\u00e1s finos de la geograf\u00eda local.<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Capacidad para predecir ciertas estructuras atmosf\u00e9ricas y mantenerlas dentro de la soluci\u00f3n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Fen\u00f3menos meteorol\u00f3gicos propios de la mesoescala o microescala, aunque, puntualmente, puedan ser incluidos (forzando la condici\u00f3n inicial) dentro del modelo, este, a lo largo de sus iteraciones (resolviendo las ecuaciones de Navier Stokes) ser\u00e1 incapaz de mantener dichas estructuras o eventos.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Asimilar, dentro de la condici\u00f3n inicial o an\u00e1lisis de un modelo global, una medida de velocidad de viento derivada de una brisa marina no mejorar\u00e1 el pron\u00f3stico<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Aproximaciones inadecuadas de ciertos procesos f\u00edsicos<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Gran cantidad de fen\u00f3menos f\u00edsicos se producen a escalas espaciotemporales irresolubles por un modelo de estas caracter\u00edsticas. Por ejemplo, algunas tormentas de finales de verano (en funci\u00f3n de su tama\u00f1o) pueden ser \u201cinvisibles para el modelo\u201d en la medida en que fen\u00f3menos clave para su detonaci\u00f3n, como el enfriamiento radiactivo, la condensaci\u00f3n de gotas de lluvia, etc. est\u00e1n insuficientemente representados dentro del modelo (su intensidad y velocidad).<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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No poder pronosticar una fuerte racha de viento derivada de una tormenta vespertina puede ser una limitaci\u00f3n inherente al modelo usado<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t
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Todos estos factores derivan, en muchos casos, en un pron\u00f3stico inadecuado y, consecuentemente, en una mala programaci\u00f3n de las actividades en parque.<\/p>

En resumen, las particularidades geogr\u00e1ficas propias de los emplazamientos e\u00f3licos, las cuales afectan significativamente el r\u00e9gimen de viento y por ende al rendimiento de las turbinas, demandan modelos f\u00edsicos de alta resoluci\u00f3n y conocimientos profundos sobre meteorolog\u00eda de meso y microescala. Una de las soluciones es contar con modelos meteorol\u00f3gicos ad-hoc<\/strong> para regiones concretas, lo que permite aumentar la resoluci\u00f3n espacial (3-1km) y, a la larga, mejorar la toma de decisiones.<\/p>

En SOLUTE, nuestra marca de servicios meteorol\u00f3gicos, Aphelion<\/a>, cuenta con expertos en la configuraci\u00f3n y puesta en marcha de modelos de predicci\u00f3n meteorol\u00f3gica de alta resoluci\u00f3n. Gracias a esta tecnolog\u00eda, los operadores renovables pueden acceder a pron\u00f3sticos precisos y confiables, incluso en \u00e1reas con escasa densidad de estaciones o torres meteorol\u00f3gicas.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Predicci\u00f3n de velocidad de viento para operaciones en PE, generada por Aphelion<\/span><\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Los modelos globales son insuficientes para predicciones de parques e\u00f3licos. Se requieren modelos de alta resoluci\u00f3n para una mayor precisi\u00f3n.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":11,"featured_media":6123,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[36,20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6112","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy-forecasting","category-meteorology"],"yoast_head":"\nConventional NWP limitations for Wind Farms weather forecast | SOLUTE<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Global models are inadequate for wind farm forecasts. 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